Hugopari
0x7804ff0f805d9c5fe476c5c729c1e41f778e2d8e
- Realised P&L
- $-33.77
- Volume
- $9.4k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $510.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)91.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.845 | $169.00 | +$9.00 |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.700 | $140.00 | +$28.00 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.970 | 0.975 | $97.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.650 | $65.00 | −$11.00 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.775 | $38.75 | +$1.25 |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.672 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.90 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? · No | 0.555 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$321.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$107.91at 0.841Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$86.55at 0.857Will Rodri join Barcelona?
- +$58.00at 0.884Will Trump say "Mission" during remarks at NASA?
- +$57.13at 0.769Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$36.11at 0.710Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 07:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.987 | $154.94 |
| 09-22 12:42 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | SELL | 0.9913128 | $99.13 |
| 09-14 18:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.14 | $21.00 |
| 09-11 15:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.82 | $410.00 |
| 09-01 05:39 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $80.90 |
| 08-31 13:49 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $21.17 |
| 08-29 14:15 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $16.42 |
| 08-29 11:41 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.713 | $6.20 |
| 08-24 12:22 | Will it rain during the Dutch Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.9878484628 | $300.00 |
| 08-12 07:16 | Jeff Bezos Announced as New Liverpool Owner in 2026? | SELL | 0.7630003 | $76.29 |
| 08-09 14:44 | Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9? | BUY | 0.9883982627 | $100.00 |
| 08-08 21:20 | Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9? | BUY | 0.9349999997 | $100.00 |
| 08-08 20:50 | Will Rodri join Barcelona? | BUY | 0.9006773981 | $200.00 |
| 08-07 12:40 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8848552966 | $300.00 |
| 08-07 10:30 | Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | SELL | 0.9715878346 | $510.66 |