PolyBot

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Traders

Elcappero

0x77da4e173aa52297e6a9c3b63601f6ef3afffb17

Realised P&L
$7.83
Volume
$335.02
Markets traded
33
Open portfolio
$43.56

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded33
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample19 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Italy participate in Eurovision 2027? · Yes0.9100.671$11.06−$3.94
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8600.865$10.06+$0.06
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.4900.835$8.52+$3.52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.8600.965$5.61+$0.61
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? · No0.7700.835$2.17+$0.17
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · No0.6820.285$2.09−$2.91
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · No0.8500.845$1.99−$0.01
Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes0.1920.038$1.98−$8.02
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? · Yes0.0600.005$0.09−$0.91
Iran coup attempt by June 30? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? · Yes0.5000.000$0.00−$3.00
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? · Yes0.3000.000$0.00−$1.00
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? · Yes0.4900.000$0.00−$3.00
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.4600.000$0.00−$3.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-21 15:57Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?BUY0.699999972$5.00
06-21 15:53Will United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY0.4899999951$3.00
06-21 15:52Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?BUY0.5$3.00
06-21 15:52Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?BUY0.29999982$1.00
06-21 15:51Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?BUY0.4299999871$5.00
06-21 15:51Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?BUY0.64$5.00
06-13 09:12Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4599999264$3.00
06-13 09:12Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.7299999876$10.00
06-13 09:10Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?BUY0.2399999674$5.00
06-13 09:09Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?BUY0.6799999728$5.00
06-13 09:09Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?BUY0.5799999954$5.00
06-02 13:47Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?BUY0.059999946$1.00
06-02 13:47Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1639998891$1.00
06-01 12:23Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.86$10.00
06-01 12:19Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL0.998$1.13