effortravioli
0x774ddaee409abeefebc924b3c67a0f7dea5c8b08
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $116.7k
- Markets traded
- 5,648
- Open portfolio
- $277.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,648
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration5.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$151.88at 0.065Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
- +$118.71at 0.043Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
- +$96.88at 0.021Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
- +$90.57at 0.053Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
- +$77.54at 0.064Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:25 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.34 | $5.10 |
| 11-01 20:50 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.35 | $5.25 |
| 11-01 20:35 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.65 | $0.38 |
| 11-01 20:27 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.43 | $5.16 |
| 11-01 20:27 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.44 | $5.28 |
| 11-01 20:27 | Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 20:27 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.45 | $5.40 |
| 11-01 20:27 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.4854545455 | $5.34 |
| 11-01 20:12 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.47 | $8.46 |
| 11-01 20:12 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.55 | $8.25 |
| 11-01 20:12 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.56 | $4.84 |
| 11-01 20:12 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.26 | $8.06 |
| 11-01 20:12 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.46 | $8.28 |
| 11-01 19:27 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.90 |
| 11-01 19:27 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.29 | $5.22 |