PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

effortravioli

0x774ddaee409abeefebc924b3c67a0f7dea5c8b08

Realised P&L
$-2.3k
Volume
$116.7k
Markets traded
5,648
Open portfolio
$277.52

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded5,648
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration5.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on November 1? · Yes0.3201.000$24.99+$16.99
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on November 1? · Yes0.4201.000$19.99+$11.59
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 1? · Yes0.4900.999$16.98+$8.65
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on November 1? · Yes0.5001.000$15.99+$7.99
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · Yes0.1500.130$13.00−$2.00
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 1? · Yes0.3901.000$12.99+$7.92
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on November 2? · Yes0.4600.530$9.54+$1.26
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on November 2? · Yes0.2600.275$8.53+$0.47
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on November 2? · Yes0.5500.555$8.32+$0.07
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 2? · Yes0.4700.445$8.01−$0.45
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 2? · Yes0.6500.615$8.00−$0.45
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on November 2? · Yes0.4500.570$6.84+$1.44
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0900.060$6.66−$3.33
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on November 2? · Yes0.4400.485$5.82+$0.54
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 2? · Yes0.4850.515$5.67+$0.33

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 23:25Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on November 2?BUY0.34$5.10
11-01 20:50Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 2?BUY0.35$5.25
11-01 20:35Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 2?BUY0.65$0.38
11-01 20:27Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 2?BUY0.43$5.16
11-01 20:27Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on November 2?BUY0.44$5.28
11-01 20:27Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 2?BUY0.5$5.00
11-01 20:27Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on November 2?BUY0.45$5.40
11-01 20:27Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 2?BUY0.4854545455$5.34
11-01 20:12Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 2?BUY0.47$8.46
11-01 20:12Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on November 2?BUY0.55$8.25
11-01 20:12Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 2?BUY0.56$4.84
11-01 20:12Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on November 2?BUY0.26$8.06
11-01 20:12Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on November 2?BUY0.46$8.28
11-01 19:27Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on November 2?BUY0.38$1.90
11-01 19:27Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 2?BUY0.29$5.22