UnderwriterGCR
0x771d7c5ac82ca8776738e2560f6a6e50d34b440e
- Realised P&L
- $18.3k
- Volume
- $1.13M
- Markets traded
- 417
- Open portfolio
- $64.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded417
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.870Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025?
- +$1.9kat 0.932Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025?
- +$1.6kat 0.955Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31?
- +$1.0kat 0.942Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?
- +$977.23at 0.953Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:40 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $290.75 |
| 08-02 21:40 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $2.9k |
| 07-27 20:20 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.86 | $860.00 |
| 07-27 20:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.94 | $27.44 |
| 07-27 20:15 | 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BUY | 0.9307620721 | $92.71 |
| 07-27 20:00 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.954 | $1.4k |
| 07-27 19:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.5k |
| 07-27 19:53 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $415.00 |
| 07-27 19:52 | 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BUY | 0.9281030615 | $61.24 |
| 07-27 19:51 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.974992 | $2.4k |
| 07-27 19:49 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9669363653 | $3.3k |
| 07-25 22:30 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $901.44 |
| 07-25 09:32 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $890.00 |
| 07-24 22:17 | 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BUY | 0.912 | $912.00 |
| 07-24 22:16 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $455.00 |