UnderwriterGCR
0x771d7c5ac82ca8776738e2560f6a6e50d34b440e
- Realised P&L
- $17.5k
- Volume
- $1.18M
- Markets traded
- 418
- Open portfolio
- $21.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded418
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.935 | 0.998 | $10.2k | +$640.78 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.821 | 0.955 | $5.3k | +$737.51 |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No | 0.916 | 0.966 | $3.6k | +$188.13 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? · No | 0.991 | 0.991 | $2.3k | −$0.59 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.945 | $152.91 | +$36.41 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.912 | $36.50 | +$0.10 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.412 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$103.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.870Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025?
- +$1.9kat 0.932Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025?
- +$1.6kat 0.955Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31?
- +$1.0kat 0.942Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?
- +$977.23at 0.953Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 22:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $950.00 |
| 10-08 22:16 | Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? | BUY | 0.991 | $1.7k |
| 09-06 14:46 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | SELL | 0.986 | $2.6k |
| 09-06 14:46 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | SELL | 0.987 | $6.2k |
| 09-04 22:57 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.983 | $568.17 |
| 09-04 22:56 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.973 | $54.49 |
| 08-31 20:46 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $1.9k |
| 08-31 20:46 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.97 | $758.34 |
| 08-31 20:45 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.963 | $566.70 |
| 08-31 20:45 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $470.00 |
| 08-31 20:45 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.955 | $3.2k |
| 08-31 20:44 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.93265908 | $466.33 |
| 08-31 20:44 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL | 0.9880111 | $988.01 |
| 08-31 20:43 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.88 | $880.00 |
| 08-30 17:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $940.00 |