PermanentUnderclassEscapee
0x76c94d974b850eb11e3d5220f3fe77c785a6ab2e
- Realised P&L
- $-6.8k
- Volume
- $126.1k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $12.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No | 0.930 | 0.995 | $4.0k | +$258.00 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.918 | 0.958 | $3.4k | +$138.28 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.847 | 0.962 | $2.9k | +$344.84 |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.595 | 0.455 | $1.7k | −$516.75 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.971 | $970.50 | +$50.50 |
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.00 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$96.00 |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? · Yes | 0.141 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$141.00 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$225.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$950.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$324.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.638Will Eric Adams drop out?
- +$718.00at 0.713Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$570.00at 0.620August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C?
- +$420.00at 0.790Will TikTok be banned again before May?
- +$385.53at 0.818Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-02 23:11 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $3.7k |
| 06-02 23:10 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.927 | $166.78 |
| 06-02 23:10 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.927 | $345.97 |
| 06-02 23:02 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | BUY | 0.972 | $972.00 |
| 06-02 23:02 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $579.36 |
| 05-22 01:26 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | BUY | 0.95783393 | $957.83 |
| 05-22 01:22 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $486.08 |
| 05-22 01:20 | Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.9k |
| 04-04 17:28 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | BUY | 0.91 | $910.00 |
| 03-31 04:59 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | BUY | 0.985 | $1.3k |
| 03-24 16:22 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $960.00 |
| 03-24 16:19 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $995.00 |
| 03-24 16:14 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.993 | $993.00 |
| 03-24 04:21 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.983 | $983.00 |
| 03-23 16:14 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.989 | $2.0k |