0x758Edf839EE3C9718Aa8E8CcEDea88726f1D4916-1771087895483
0x758edf839ee3c9718aa8e8ccedea88726f1d4916
- Realised P&L
- $219.64
- Volume
- $7.4k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $357.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar3.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 75 and 124 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? · No | 0.974 | 0.983 | $209.25 | +$1.97 |
| Will there be between 50 and 74 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? · Yes | 0.329 | 0.735 | $73.41 | +$40.58 |
| Will there be between 25 and 49 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? · Yes | 0.963 | 0.185 | $43.68 | −$183.73 |
| Will there be 125 or more tornadoes in the US in September 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.887 | $22.18 | −$1.82 |
| Will there be under 25 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.895 | $8.95 | −$0.65 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.232 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET · Up | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$84.52at 0.543Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?
- +$71.10at 0.454Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
- +$44.35at 0.956Will 80 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- +$21.30at 0.058Will 100 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
- +$8.73at 0.836Will 200 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 08:33 | Will there be between 50 and 74 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $20.31 |
| 09-30 22:32 | Will there be between 25 and 49 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $3.55 |
| 09-29 11:05 | Will there be between 50 and 74 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 09-29 11:02 | Will there be between 50 and 74 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $11.03 |
| 09-29 11:02 | Will there be between 50 and 74 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $29.75 |
| 09-27 12:28 | Will there be between 25 and 49 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $106.33 |
| 09-26 14:37 | Will there be between 25 and 49 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $24.25 |
| 09-26 08:42 | Will there be between 25 and 49 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $24.00 |
| 09-26 08:25 | Will there be between 25 and 49 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $77.64 |
| 09-25 11:04 | Will there be between 75 and 124 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $121.52 |
| 09-22 13:25 | Will there be between 50 and 74 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7814285714 | $27.35 |
| 09-22 08:39 | Will there be between 75 and 124 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $64.67 |
| 09-15 08:26 | Will there be between 75 and 124 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $21.09 |
| 09-10 10:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | BUY | 0.8499999915 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 15:02 | Will 80 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $30.15 |