PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

jerpo

0x74990354d355b87ef72a079834346ff03ea8dfcd

Realised P&L
$-512.24
Volume
$3.3k
Markets traded
22
Open portfolio
$338.14

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-15.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded22
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration45.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample17 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)35.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? · No0.7820.905$115.67+$15.67
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? · No0.8900.878$98.64$1.36
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? · Yes0.1770.155$65.75$9.25
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1190.105$44.10$5.64
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.5900.165$13.98$36.02

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-08 18:00Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?BUY0.1768075626$75.00
07-22 18:34Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.7699999935$20.00
06-16 12:41Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?SELL0.73$11.40
06-14 02:25Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?BUY0.64$10.00
05-31 23:17Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY0.6409999987$100.00
05-20 18:38SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?BUY0.4399999975$50.00
05-06 18:35Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?BUY0.6199999975$50.00
04-29 13:22Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?BUY0.257131439$50.00
04-27 15:42Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?SELL0.989$59.34
04-21 15:24Will Trump visit China by May 31?BUY0.2299999933$25.00
04-08 18:13Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?BUY0.4377383495$30.00
04-08 18:05Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?SELL0.7$46.66
04-01 21:07Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation?BUY0.3599999931$25.00
04-01 20:49Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?BUY0.33$33.00
04-01 20:49Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation?BUY0.25$25.00