jerpo
0x74990354d355b87ef72a079834346ff03ea8dfcd
- Realised P&L
- $-512.24
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $338.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-15.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? · No | 0.782 | 0.905 | $115.67 | +$15.67 |
| Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.878 | $98.64 | −$1.36 |
| Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.177 | 0.155 | $65.75 | −$9.25 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.105 | $44.10 | −$5.64 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.165 | $13.98 | −$36.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$62.28at 0.616Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$37.68at 0.399Will Trump say "Transgender" during Cabinet meeting on March 26?
- +$14.34at 0.750Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
- +$12.50at 0.800Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$7.47at 0.870Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 18:00 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.1768075626 | $75.00 |
| 07-22 18:34 | Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7699999935 | $20.00 |
| 06-16 12:41 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $11.40 |
| 06-14 02:25 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $10.00 |
| 05-31 23:17 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.6409999987 | $100.00 |
| 05-20 18:38 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | BUY | 0.4399999975 | $50.00 |
| 05-06 18:35 | Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | BUY | 0.6199999975 | $50.00 |
| 04-29 13:22 | Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? | BUY | 0.257131439 | $50.00 |
| 04-27 15:42 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | SELL | 0.989 | $59.34 |
| 04-21 15:24 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.2299999933 | $25.00 |
| 04-08 18:13 | Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4377383495 | $30.00 |
| 04-08 18:05 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.7 | $46.66 |
| 04-01 21:07 | Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.3599999931 | $25.00 |
| 04-01 20:49 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.33 | $33.00 |
| 04-01 20:49 | Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.25 | $25.00 |