0x739539FaB568e9e0f0B62665b0Fbf0f325ED8752-1769339801393
0x739539fab568e9e0f0b62665b0fbf0f325ed8752
- Realised P&L
- $-148.21
- Volume
- $32.1k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $35.06
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.028 | $11.00 | −$26.20 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.046 | $10.12 | −$10.78 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.065 | $6.50 | −$17.50 |
| James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.025 | $5.10 | −$10.90 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.018 | $2.34 | −$19.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.22at 0.020Trump out as President by March 31?
- +$20.40at 0.180Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$18.63at 0.200Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
- +$16.50at 0.140US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$-2.49at 0.012Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 09:54 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.093 | $37.20 |
| 04-07 22:03 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.3199833333 | $19.20 |
| 04-01 21:46 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $10.80 |
| 04-01 08:39 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $24.00 |
| 03-27 17:11 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.101 | $10.10 |
| 03-23 15:36 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $21.00 |
| 03-11 11:59 | Trump out as President by March 31? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.04 |
| 03-08 12:48 | Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.0467403058 | $7.24 |
| 03-08 08:38 | Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 02-02 12:50 | Trump out as President by March 31? | BUY | 0.032 | $50.00 |
| 01-30 08:09 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.3799999985 | $150.00 |
| 01-29 11:08 | Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.00 |
| 01-29 10:37 | Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | BUY | 0.002 | $20.00 |
| 01-29 10:09 | Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.00 |
| 01-29 10:02 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.58 | $290.00 |