0x0B76AE242b057b0948AF845d9DFc0E1dfCa65ce0-1775781657645
0x7359bbbbac1e8476462bfdb43e6349737c263cc7
- Realised P&L
- $-60.33
- Volume
- $4.5k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $199.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.335 | $89.84 | +$14.69 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.654 | 0.635 | $67.94 | −$2.06 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.125 | $32.89 | −$17.11 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.350 | $8.33 | −$1.67 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.512 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.96at 0.617Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$38.23at 0.577Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
- +$28.20at 0.585Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
- +$22.50at 0.825Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
- +$12.12at 0.675Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 17:08 | Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections? | BUY | 0.2874533444 | $45.15 |
| 08-08 17:07 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.65 | $40.00 |
| 08-03 17:55 | Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections? | BUY | 0.2699999937 | $30.00 |
| 08-03 17:54 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6599999991 | $30.00 |
| 07-30 22:52 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.727501016 | $14.58 |
| 07-30 22:48 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $7.50 |
| 07-30 22:47 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $6.40 |
| 07-28 20:23 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | BUY | 0.9643112058 | $56.00 |
| 07-27 18:49 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.26 | $58.61 |
| 07-22 15:29 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.8599999955 | $103.77 |
| 07-21 21:35 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $25.00 |
| 07-20 16:39 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 21:57 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.9225 | $178.34 |
| 07-19 20:49 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6174999987 | $119.38 |
| 07-19 20:46 | Will Bad Bunny perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.27 |