ThomasLiu
0x729d090275e4c0a2a0f2ea4f8f3bd71edb669963
- Realised P&L
- $1.23
- Volume
- $8.8k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $158.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.985 | 0.997 | $104.63 | +$1.21 |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.996 | $31.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.991 | 1.000 | $11.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $10.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.28at 0.989Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.99at 0.834Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
- +$0.47at 0.978Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.31at 0.992Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$0.26at 0.987Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 13:04 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $32.00 |
| 09-22 13:03 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 08-21 14:11 | Will Solana dip to $10 in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.00 |
| 07-31 14:34 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 14:34 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.00 |
| 07-31 14:34 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999422 | $17.00 |
| 06-15 14:22 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $44.90 |
| 06-15 14:21 | Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? | BUY | 0.9959999392 | $16.00 |
| 06-15 14:21 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? | BUY | 0.997 | $13.00 |
| 05-24 14:32 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $40.00 |
| 05-24 14:32 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $20.00 |
| 05-24 14:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.00 |
| 04-16 14:33 | Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $71.13 |
| 04-16 14:33 | Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999724 | $35.00 |
| 04-16 14:32 | Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999534 | $21.00 |