28763
0x7270ce164903ab8d66d0358ba003c78235dbadd3
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $231.1k
- Markets traded
- 201
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded201
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? · No | 0.800 | 1.000 | $989.00 | +$197.80 |
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.685 | $550.74 | +$52.26 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · OpenAI | 0.330 | 0.022 | $20.42 | −$285.82 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.540 | $16.74 | +$11.47 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.130Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
- +$583.04at 0.170Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
- +$429.12at 0.420Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be at least 140k?
- +$401.36at 0.420Will Trump say "JD" or "Vance" during events with Rutte?
- +$399.56at 0.185Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 08:24 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $95.04 |
| 04-27 08:22 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $14.08 |
| 04-27 08:20 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $35.20 |
| 04-21 03:47 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $139.70 |
| 04-21 03:43 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | SELL | 0.68 | $722.84 |
| 04-13 09:57 | Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.57 | $360.24 |
| 04-13 09:28 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.45 | $138.15 |
| 04-13 09:27 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.45 | $164.70 |
| 04-13 08:13 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.61 | $648.43 |
| 04-13 08:03 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.46 | $309.58 |
| 04-13 07:59 | Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.6 | $379.20 |
| 04-13 06:08 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $311.15 |
| 04-12 16:29 | Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30? | SELL | 0.82 | $378.02 |
| 04-12 15:51 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? | SELL | 0.12 | $6.84 |
| 04-12 15:37 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $291.20 |