Punkrocker98
0x71b0a4860930602ab31923dd0a39067c45c891c3
- Realised P&L
- $-596.84
- Volume
- $29.6k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $4.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.050 | $1.49 | −$1.51 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.011 | $1.18 | −$2.82 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.045 | $0.90 | −$4.10 |
| Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? · Yes | 0.105 | 0.022 | $0.30 | −$1.10 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.029 | $0.15 | −$0.85 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 29? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 29? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? · No | 0.569 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$498.25at 0.135Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
- +$155.74at 0.309Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
- +$84.32at 0.262Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
- +$20.28at 0.757Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
- +$11.79at 0.200Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 16:29 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.157 | $11.72 |
| 05-28 18:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 05-28 18:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.0534473544 | $1.00 |
| 05-28 18:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.4099998237 | $1.00 |
| 05-02 07:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 05-02 07:38 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 04-28 19:41 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 29? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 04-28 19:41 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 29? | BUY | 0.2754097732 | $3.00 |
| 04-28 19:41 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 29? | BUY | 0.0575396722 | $5.00 |
| 04-28 19:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET | BUY | 0.4199999678 | $6.00 |
| 04-28 19:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET | BUY | 0.2709676901 | $3.00 |
| 04-26 07:30 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.00 |
| 04-26 07:29 | Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5689999653 | $5.00 |
| 04-26 07:23 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.0389999908 | $4.00 |
| 04-26 07:22 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on April 28? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.85 |