0x70b5df16befa3c9e8f4664a824a795a60ab66216
- Realised P&L
- $-47.21
- Volume
- $5.9k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $45.52
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration93.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.055 | $29.62 | −$11.49 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.221 | $5.98 | +$0.42 |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.021 | $3.21 | −$2.48 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.026 | $3.02 | −$2.68 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.065 | $2.85 | −$2.85 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.015 | $0.83 | −$4.64 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.57 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.71 |
| ZCash Up or Down - August 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET · Up | 0.990 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.01 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.95at 0.147Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.12at 0.139Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.09at 0.965Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
- +$-0.75at 0.534Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$-1.21at 0.538Another pandemic before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 21:28 | ZCash Up or Down - August 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $8.01 |
| 08-05 21:25 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.981 | $5.95 |
| 07-15 11:09 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999943 | $11.09 |
| 07-15 11:07 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999942 | $11.07 |
| 07-15 11:06 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.581 | $23.32 |
| 07-14 06:52 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999915 | $7.57 |
| 07-14 06:50 | Netanyahu out by July 31? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.74 |
| 07-14 06:50 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.173 | $7.31 |
| 06-24 20:10 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY | 0.0130000001 | $3.23 |
| 06-24 16:40 | Weed rescheduled by December 31? | SELL | 0.241338524 | $3.56 |
| 06-24 12:17 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |
| 06-23 18:45 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.0022736842 | $1.08 |
| 06-23 18:43 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1929999762 | $5.57 |
| 06-23 16:15 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $11.38 |
| 06-23 14:32 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.9349999942 | $5.68 |