Arkenibon
0x6e2ba3fe3b0750d6935fc7fdf80d25298c72ce12
- Realised P&L
- $-37.45
- Volume
- $739.50
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $3.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.635 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.300 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.550 | $0.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.019 | $0.33 | −$2.67 |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.386 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.86at 0.112Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$5.31at 0.420Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
- +$3.32at 0.237Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?
- +$2.47at 0.258GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?
- +$2.45at 0.290Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 08:55 | SSI public model released by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $4.21 |
| 10-18 18:20 | Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 18:20 | Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8279996357 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 18:18 | Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 18:16 | Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 01:09 | Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 01:08 | Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0946342387 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 01:06 | Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999965 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 19:49 | Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $3.18 |
| 10-11 19:05 | Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 19:05 | Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 10-10 21:23 | Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:22 | Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.6989999752 | $2.00 |
| 10-04 06:41 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 06:41 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999116 | $2.00 |