0x6e1c1aba751e5ffcdd16b5c16136c4cdc2fccfb2
- Realised P&L
- $16.77
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $116.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration93.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.135 | $108.06 | +$52.03 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.145 | $2.96 | −$7.86 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.095 | $2.60 | −$3.15 |
| Will France pass a national budget by December 31? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.300 | $2.50 | −$1.50 |
| Macron out by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.75 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.82 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.38 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-02 08:53 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0699999979 | $31.16 |
| 04-02 08:52 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | BUY | 0.2099999858 | $10.38 |
| 04-02 08:51 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.82 |
| 04-02 08:50 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.5299999858 | $10.82 |
| 04-02 08:47 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | BUY | 0.4799999568 | $4.00 |
| 04-02 08:46 | Macron out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0299999835 | $1.75 |
| 04-02 08:44 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999741 | $5.75 |
| 04-02 08:40 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0699999974 | $24.87 |