0x6db673e7a6482514f0c9f00dab593225d55e50ce
- Realised P&L
- $-153.40
- Volume
- $28.3k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $746.72
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.345 | $510.67 | −$66.61 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.182 | $180.76 | +$39.12 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.459 | 0.512 | $43.04 | +$4.49 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.064 | $8.44 | +$0.73 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.962 | 0.996 | $3.80 | +$0.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$188.43at 0.769Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$25.24at 0.819Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
- +$1.68at 0.550Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$-0.25at 0.064Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$-0.31at 0.350Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 01:43 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.39 | $577.28 |
| 08-06 13:37 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.146 | $73.10 |
| 08-05 00:21 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.459 | $272.35 |
| 08-01 06:54 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.143 | $213.24 |
| 07-28 13:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.76 | $620.27 |
| 07-15 10:30 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.4 | $27.01 |
| 07-14 03:25 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.955 | $723.74 |
| 05-29 03:59 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.331 | $178.98 |
| 05-27 23:21 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.6 | $25.00 |
| 05-27 13:49 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.39 | $306.25 |
| 04-17 10:00 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.85 | $138.06 |
| 04-09 10:10 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.8698339824 | $42.44 |
| 02-14 01:46 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.45 | $383.76 |
| 02-04 21:10 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.058 | $31.89 |
| 02-04 01:18 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.82 | $473.06 |