PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

MartinMwa

0x6cdf13cc2ccc3f7c08e28fad7ca8b8ec05f612d4

Realised P&L
$135.42
Volume
$32.7k
Markets traded
83
Open portfolio
$68.96

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded83
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9160.971$31.78+$1.78
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No0.9580.979$10.21+$0.21
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.9941.000$10.06+$0.06
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9270.980$5.28+$0.28
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9620.988$5.13+$0.13
Will Johnnie LaRossa win The Bachelorette Season 22? · Yes0.0050.006$1.22+$0.22
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No0.8500.950$1.12+$0.12
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.8500.950$1.12+$0.12
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company? · No0.9000.930$1.03+$0.03
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.9860.998$1.01+$0.01
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes0.8500.630$0.74−$0.26
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes0.0020.001$0.25−$0.75
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET · Down0.6500.000$0.00−$1.00
Clippers vs. Pelicans · Clippers0.4600.000$0.00−$460.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET · Down0.7900.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 14:08Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ETBUY0.9$1.00
08-06 09:43Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.8499994475$1.00
07-26 00:56Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ETBUY0.5099999566$2.00
07-04 12:37Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?SELL0.998$830.00
07-04 11:59Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?SELL0.66$4.01
07-04 11:44Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?SELL0.6$9.00
07-04 10:16Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 4?SELL0.2468918919$2.19
07-04 09:53Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 4?SELL0.4706666667$70.60
07-04 09:46Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?SELL0.68$13.60
07-04 08:56Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?SELL0.69$2.22
07-04 08:38Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 4?SELL0.4111731926$28.04
07-04 08:23Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 4?SELL0.53$5.63
07-04 08:22Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?SELL0.3$9.52
07-04 08:14Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 4?SELL0.23$1.38
07-04 08:11Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 4?SELL0.46$3.37