Belgaron
0x6c104a31c105ab2573a42e0f178f961e4496df5c
- Realised P&L
- $-27.5k
- Volume
- $1.77M
- Markets traded
- 1,242
- Open portfolio
- $207.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,242
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.0kat 0.748Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.9kat 0.855Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
- +$3.1kat 0.803Seahawks vs. Patriots
- +$2.8kat 0.921Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$2.7kat 0.779Will England win on 2026-07-18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 14:28 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 9%-12%? | BUY | 0.91 | $36.40 |
| 09-16 14:28 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 15%-18%? | BUY | 0.948 | $43.61 |
| 09-16 14:27 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 6% or more? | BUY | 0.929 | $18.58 |
| 09-16 14:25 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.89 | $356.00 |
| 09-15 21:29 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? | BUY | 0.89 | $671.86 |
| 09-15 21:29 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? | BUY | 0.9 | $488.82 |
| 09-15 16:27 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.87 | $348.00 |
| 09-15 16:26 | Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | BUY | 0.83 | $88.39 |
| 09-15 16:23 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.76 | $228.00 |
| 09-15 16:22 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | BUY | 0.304 | $121.60 |
| 09-15 16:21 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | BUY | 0.5471713333 | $164.15 |
| 09-15 16:07 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.87 | $522.00 |
| 09-15 13:24 | Blue wave in 2026? | BUY | 0.7962318841 | $274.70 |
| 09-15 06:19 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.87 | $435.00 |
| 09-15 06:17 | Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.8961997119 | $87.10 |