PolyBot

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Traders

Belgaron

0x6c104a31c105ab2573a42e0f178f961e4496df5c

Realised P&L
$-27.5k
Volume
$1.77M
Markets traded
1,242
Open portfolio
$207.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,242
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration6.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.8420.955$10.8k+$1.3k
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7340.930$10.1k+$2.1k
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? · No0.8870.920$7.6k+$272.78
US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No0.7350.845$7.6k+$990.44
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2360.542$5.5k+$3.1k
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.8420.820$5.3k$144.00
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes0.8280.958$5.3k+$716.74
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.7930.775$5.1k$116.67
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? · Yes0.7300.770$5.1k+$263.61
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? · No0.8980.942$5.1k+$233.39
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? · Yes0.8420.910$5.0k+$378.47
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? · No0.8920.925$4.4k+$158.82
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.8020.835$4.1k+$158.72
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.8850.925$4.0k+$175.22
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? · No0.8770.925$3.9k+$204.66

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 14:28Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 9%-12%?BUY0.91$36.40
09-16 14:28Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 15%-18%?BUY0.948$43.61
09-16 14:27Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 6% or more?BUY0.929$18.58
09-16 14:25Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.89$356.00
09-15 21:29Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?BUY0.89$671.86
09-15 21:29Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?BUY0.9$488.82
09-15 16:27Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.87$348.00
09-15 16:26Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?BUY0.83$88.39
09-15 16:23Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.76$228.00
09-15 16:22Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?BUY0.304$121.60
09-15 16:21Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?BUY0.5471713333$164.15
09-15 16:07Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.87$522.00
09-15 13:24Blue wave in 2026?BUY0.7962318841$274.70
09-15 06:19Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.87$435.00
09-15 06:17Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?BUY0.8961997119$87.10