0x6bd3561530e94da23d44bf19a78c8970f5363e23
0x6bd3561530e94da23d44bf19a78c8970f5363e23
- Realised P&L
- $-713.30
- Volume
- $89.2k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $5.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)15.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · Yes | 0.146 | 0.185 | $4.1k | +$855.54 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.182 | 0.175 | $492.12 | −$20.92 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.040 | $237.36 | −$9.63 |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.021 | $215.30 | −$339.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$659.11at 0.382Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- +$27.73at 0.251US strike on Cuba by December 31?
- +$-6.15at 0.221US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
- +$-8.21at 0.131US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
- +$-10.98at 0.123Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 12:50 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | SELL | 0.1 | $120.00 |
| 10-05 13:31 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $22.50 |
| 10-05 13:31 | U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31? | SELL | 0.0529315235 | $19.56 |
| 10-05 04:04 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.8 | $162.23 |
| 09-20 23:32 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.2199999986 | $6.12 |
| 09-20 23:32 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? | BUY | 0.1299999997 | $8.17 |
| 09-19 04:24 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $32.80 |
| 09-17 17:28 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.1399999998 | $59.98 |
| 09-16 19:51 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.0903835863 | $65.11 |
| 09-16 19:36 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | SELL | 0.15 | $30.00 |
| 09-16 10:33 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | SELL | 0.0156330796 | $137.23 |
| 09-15 23:34 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.1934086845 | $333.38 |
| 09-15 23:33 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0411034742 | $247.00 |
| 09-15 23:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $597.27 |
| 08-15 16:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.53 | $26.50 |