hsk21
0x6b4539afabda2385d52922f34087388b668a32ea
- Realised P&L
- $-6.17
- Volume
- $504.77
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $46.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo · Yes | 0.070 | 0.055 | $7.86 | −$2.14 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.605 | $5.71 | +$0.71 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.265 | $5.52 | +$0.52 |
| Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.780 | $5.49 | +$0.49 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.735 | $4.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.505 | $4.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.245 | $4.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.244 | 0.210 | $4.31 | −$0.69 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.095 | $2.97 | −$2.03 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.75at 0.080US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
- +$2.39at 0.389Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference?
- +$1.22at 0.639Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.945Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
- +$-2.45at 0.844Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 03:05 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7499999625 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 15:54 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $8.75 |
| 09-18 09:28 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 04:33 | Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government? | SELL | 0.363 | $1.81 |
| 09-17 04:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 04:08 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 18:25 | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $6.34 |
| 09-16 18:24 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference? | SELL | 0.49 | $12.89 |
| 09-16 13:48 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 13:48 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 03:53 | Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election? | BUY | 0.7099999702 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 14:23 | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.629999995 | $5.00 |
| 09-13 06:54 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 12:09 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5299999587 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 17:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.17 | $1.77 |