VOrban
0x6ae4160c7507f4e9634144178dcf4e4c36d7d4ce
- Realised P&L
- $-6.8k
- Volume
- $642.4k
- Markets traded
- 419
- Open portfolio
- $8.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded419
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.089U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
- +$1.7kat 0.286Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.219Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.940US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$907.02at 0.588 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:47 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1630735796 | $5.25 |
| 09-17 18:24 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9508298667 | $17.83 |
| 09-17 18:24 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.951 | $17.83 |
| 09-17 16:44 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.762 | $55.62 |
| 09-17 15:07 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $75.00 |
| 09-17 10:00 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.3 | $21.16 |
| 09-17 09:59 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.31 | $21.87 |
| 09-17 09:50 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.782 | $19.55 |
| 09-17 09:50 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.782 | $39.10 |
| 09-15 20:51 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $48.74 |
| 09-15 20:51 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $150.00 |
| 09-15 16:33 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $16.68 |
| 09-15 16:33 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.947 | $7.50 |
| 09-15 16:33 | Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250? | SELL | 0.6 | $20.26 |
| 09-15 16:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $22.24 |