koninginhetkasteel
0x69bf85dec1ab8491feaf1df3413c23a3ff9b1737
- Realised P&L
- $76.87
- Volume
- $237.2k
- Markets traded
- 113
- Open portfolio
- $83.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded113
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.45at 0.018US strike on Colombia by January 31?
- +$31.05at 0.020Maduro out in 2025?
- +$28.57at 0.010Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?
- +$21.22at 0.018Epstein client list released in 2025?
- +$14.05at 0.024Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 18:25 | Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $2.72 |
| 10-04 17:26 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.024 | $1.01 |
| 10-04 16:52 | Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 10-04 06:24 | Will Thinky be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.45 |
| 10-04 06:07 | Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 06:05 | Will Bill Clinton be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.0195520323 | $2.03 |
| 10-04 06:02 | Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.023 | $1.20 |
| 10-04 06:01 | ByteDance IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.024 | $1.65 |
| 10-04 06:00 | Epic Games IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.0229855398 | $2.56 |
| 10-04 05:58 | Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? | BUY | 0.016 | $0.80 |
| 10-04 05:56 | WHOOP IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.013 | $0.86 |
| 10-04 05:46 | Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? | BUY | 0.0166116131 | $0.99 |
| 10-04 05:44 | Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.039 | $7.76 |
| 10-04 05:40 | Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.10 |
| 10-04 05:39 | Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.01 |