0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095
0x6992d56559dd30b5b5d0f5ca3d5427f9e94e6c1d
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $7.02M
- Markets traded
- 725
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded725
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.9kat 0.557Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$5.9kat 0.218Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$5.2kat 0.219Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
- +$4.2kat 0.154Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?
- +$3.4kat 0.070Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:45 | Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027? | BUY | 0.42 | $42.00 |
| 11-01 20:26 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | SELL | 0.65 | $153.54 |
| 11-01 20:26 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | SELL | 0.75 | $28.84 |
| 11-01 20:25 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | SELL | 0.9571134302 | $143.53 |
| 11-01 19:09 | Israel military action against Syria by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $19.22 |
| 11-01 17:52 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.036 | $36.00 |
| 11-01 16:08 | Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $104.00 |
| 11-01 16:07 | Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | SELL | 0.0026356833 | $3.16 |
| 10-31 16:59 | Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.002 | $3.00 |
| 10-30 22:06 | Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? | SELL | 0.0024238909 | $5.33 |
| 10-30 22:06 | Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | SELL | 0.00478786 | $14.36 |
| 10-30 11:19 | Ilhan Omar arrested by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0109340253 | $2.01 |
| 10-30 11:19 | Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.24 |
| 10-30 09:53 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | SELL | 0.0049828579 | $69.31 |
| 10-29 23:49 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | SELL | 0.265141256 | $103.14 |