0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095
0x6992d56559dd30b5b5d0f5ca3d5427f9e94e6c1d
- Realised P&L
- $12.2k
- Volume
- $6.09M
- Markets traded
- 574
- Open portfolio
- $7.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded574
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.9kat 0.557Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$5.9kat 0.218Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$5.3kat 0.215Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
- +$4.2kat 0.154Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?
- +$3.4kat 0.070Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 20:17 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $5.20 |
| 08-02 20:14 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.193 | $38.60 |
| 08-02 20:14 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.36 |
| 08-02 20:14 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.12 |
| 08-02 19:11 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $5.20 |
| 08-02 18:58 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0744117603 | $98.00 |
| 08-02 18:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.64 | $220.39 |
| 08-01 20:24 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $450.00 |
| 08-01 20:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.1k |
| 08-01 09:27 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.94 |
| 07-31 21:44 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.038 | $38.00 |
| 07-31 21:39 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $420.00 |
| 07-31 21:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.2506674092 | $146.29 |
| 07-31 21:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.260125 | $208.10 |
| 07-31 21:07 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL | 0.0095176281 | $1.65 |