0x698bd202b2333bfc086c3a7d282d528687ab47b2
0x698bd202b2333bfc086c3a7d282d528687ab47b2
- Realised P&L
- $0.09
- Volume
- $347.35
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $3.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.325 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.610 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.315 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.227 | 0.165 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.96at 0.258Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
- +$3.83at 0.349Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 00:49 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 15:17 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.226712644 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 04:36 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 19:59 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 07:25 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 22:58 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:05 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 03:21 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999438 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 19:09 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.7499999063 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 22:54 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.419999979 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 14:18 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 00:15 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 01:54 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.5099999516 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 16:41 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 08:40 | Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August? | BUY | 0.6899999345 | $2.00 |