n1414
0x68d399617573841413513ba7eec8e793b32582e1
- Realised P&L
- $10.1k
- Volume
- $310.3k
- Markets traded
- 170
- Open portfolio
- $3.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded170
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.690 | 0.835 | $3.3k | +$581.03 |
| Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.342 | 0.255 | $51.00 | −$17.50 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? · No | 0.152 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.900Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.704Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
- +$1.1kat 0.774Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?
- +$646.02at 0.653US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
- +$590.94at 0.632Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 10:05 | Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? | BUY | 0.7395763161 | $279.29 |
| 06-15 10:04 | Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? | BUY | 0.1517383821 | $57.30 |
| 06-07 23:48 | Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B? | SELL | 0.967 | $46.42 |
| 06-07 23:46 | Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $0.03 |
| 06-06 23:43 | Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 06-06 23:34 | Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.34 | $1.70 |
| 06-06 23:06 | Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 06-06 00:33 | Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 06-05 13:41 | Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B? | SELL | 0.034 | $9.22 |
| 06-04 12:08 | Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $5.44 |
| 06-04 12:08 | Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $4.60 |
| 05-11 15:09 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $127.60 |
| 05-11 14:37 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $352.00 |
| 05-07 07:27 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $160.00 |
| 05-07 07:26 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $121.50 |