n1414
0x68d399617573841413513ba7eec8e793b32582e1
- Realised P&L
- $9.5k
- Volume
- $311.0k
- Markets traded
- 177
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded177
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.690 | 0.825 | $3.3k | +$541.03 |
| Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.720 | $144.00 | +$16.00 |
| Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.342 | 0.230 | $46.00 | −$22.50 |
| Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · No | 0.110 | 0.130 | $1.30 | +$0.20 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? · No | 0.152 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.900Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.704Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
- +$1.1kat 0.774Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?
- +$646.02at 0.653US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
- +$590.94at 0.632Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:00 | Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $128.00 |
| 10-26 22:13 | Will DJ Snake attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.97 | $70.79 |
| 10-26 21:33 | Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.9945 | $39.78 |
| 10-26 20:57 | Will Erling Haaland attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.8780172414 | $101.85 |
| 10-26 20:34 | Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.996 | $84.66 |
| 10-26 20:29 | Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.9944253078 | $122.75 |
| 10-20 13:51 | Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 10-19 21:43 | Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.10 |
| 10-19 00:00 | Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $13.20 |
| 10-18 23:58 | Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $4.40 |
| 10-18 23:52 | Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 10-18 23:38 | Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $4.45 |
| 10-15 20:55 | Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 10-03 22:53 | Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 10-03 22:32 | Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.74 | $3.70 |