cym1969
0x68a7f1576f46683165516ab0a1ec89fba28ff49a
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $29.0k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $3.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.368 | 0.664 | $1.6k | +$711.54 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.746 | 0.915 | $863.21 | +$159.03 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.805 | $429.27 | +$55.99 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.589 | 0.580 | $207.14 | −$3.30 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.366 | 0.325 | $195.00 | −$24.93 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.690 | $138.00 | −$10.00 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.534 | 0.230 | $70.41 | −$93.02 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.230 | $69.00 | −$39.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.013 | $24.12 | +$6.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$900.00at 0.500Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
- +$429.41at 0.860Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$21.07at 0.166Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?
- +$2.35at 0.095Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
- +$-28.21at 0.731Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 06:30 | Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $145.50 |
| 10-04 04:48 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $10.80 |
| 10-04 04:43 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.663 | $265.20 |
| 10-04 04:39 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $121.00 |
| 10-04 00:31 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $0.45 |
| 10-03 23:43 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $5.30 |
| 10-03 23:25 | Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $11.60 |
| 10-03 23:24 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $111.00 |
| 10-03 23:24 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.47 | $25.19 |
| 10-03 23:23 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $366.28 |
| 10-03 18:54 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | SELL | 0.35 | $4.89 |
| 10-03 18:53 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | SELL | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 10-03 18:53 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? | SELL | 0.29 | $14.50 |
| 10-03 09:07 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | SELL | 0.35 | $64.05 |
| 10-02 01:57 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $703.00 |