0x6885c4433cef8df478cc5acdbd8fe0711809964f
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $15.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.831 | 0.815 | $5.7k | −$112.48 |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.693 | 0.725 | $4.8k | +$207.40 |
| StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.976 | 0.972 | $2.4k | −$9.42 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.460 | 0.435 | $1.4k | −$77.26 |
| Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.843 | 0.741 | $707.65 | −$97.80 |
| Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.738 | 0.820 | $305.44 | +$30.60 |
| Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.431 | 0.375 | $198.58 | −$29.48 |
| Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No | 0.832 | 0.862 | $80.48 | +$2.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$523.79at 0.904Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026?
- +$212.09at 0.863Will Squid launch a token by December 31, 2026?
- +$92.02at 0.919Will Squid launch a token by March 31, 2027?
- +$83.06at 0.956Will Variational launch a token by October 31, 2026?
- +$42.93at 0.970Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 04:26 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.9979753278 | $72.00 |
| 11-01 04:25 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to 2 to 5 years in prison? | BUY | 0.999 | $52.00 |
| 10-29 13:33 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to at least 5 years in prison? | BUY | 0.9988964503 | $1.1k |
| 10-28 05:36 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to at least 5 years in prison? | BUY | 0.9972831366 | $118.00 |
| 10-28 05:35 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to at least 5 years in prison? | BUY | 0.995 | $9.42 |
| 10-28 05:35 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to at least 5 years in prison? | BUY | 0.9932811048 | $113.28 |
| 10-28 05:34 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.9876385296 | $14.51 |
| 10-28 05:33 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to at least 5 years in prison? | BUY | 0.9892222222 | $44.51 |
| 10-27 11:23 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to at least 5 years in prison? | BUY | 0.996 | $32.00 |
| 10-27 11:22 | Will Variational launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $92.00 |
| 10-27 11:22 | Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6739755572 | $75.00 |
| 10-27 11:21 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.986306362 | $153.00 |
| 10-27 11:20 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.986 | $216.32 |
| 10-24 14:30 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.971 | $18.83 |
| 10-24 14:14 | Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to 2 to 5 years in prison? | BUY | 0.997 | $50.23 |