opopv3
0x686880eea810fa9141be46a1acec9eee41755198
- Realised P&L
- $30.8k
- Volume
- $3.52M
- Markets traded
- 4,392
- Open portfolio
- $814.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,392
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration48.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.218 | $755.59 | +$561.47 |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.155 | 0.080 | $32.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 2? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.110 | $10.04 | +$1.83 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on November 2? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.026 | $8.25 | +$2.76 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.065 | $6.50 | −$5.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 2? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.009 | $1.90 | +$1.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.033Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 1?
- +$1.2kat 0.009Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6?
- +$1.1kat 0.318Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?
- +$1.0kat 0.139Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 12?
- +$924.58at 0.032Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 03:17 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 2? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.12 |
| 11-02 03:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 2? | SELL | 0.0025624 | $0.51 |
| 11-02 02:35 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.0070661939 | $1.49 |
| 11-01 05:32 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.091 | $1.77 |
| 11-01 02:58 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.0015883829 | $0.94 |
| 11-01 01:47 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.0550744758 | $32.49 |
| 10-31 16:27 | Will Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October? | SELL | 0.0021068947 | $0.20 |
| 10-31 15:37 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.535 | $10.70 |
| 10-31 14:40 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.4572616145 | $275.69 |
| 10-31 14:35 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on October 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.68 |
| 10-31 06:58 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 31? | SELL | 0.0110004199 | $3.14 |
| 10-31 06:58 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 31? | SELL | 0.00645 | $0.65 |
| 10-31 05:59 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.36 | $21.60 |
| 10-31 05:58 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.7603999823 | $171.67 |
| 10-31 05:57 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 31? | SELL | 0.0018944473 | $0.95 |