PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

manekineko

0x660622caad009a8cc1f38038c0913be658621338

Realised P&L
$82.4k
Volume
$12.62M
Markets traded
553
Open portfolio
$143.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded553
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9190.955$38.2k+$1.5k
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.9300.967$29.0k+$1.1k
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · No0.8260.940$17.3k+$2.1k
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.6250.555$14.0k−$1.8k
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes0.7640.725$13.1k−$703.06
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.8550.875$11.2k+$256.18
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.6100.655$6.5k+$450.01
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.8900.977$4.9k+$435.00
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.9200.945$4.7k+$125.00
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes0.9760.980$1.4k+$5.44
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes0.9640.937$939.30−$26.69
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes0.9780.928$929.86−$49.36
Cuban regime falls in 2026? · No0.8900.915$915.00+$25.00
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes0.3530.395$536.32+$57.52
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? · Yes0.8700.920$16.76+$0.91

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 15:48Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?BUY0.87$10.25
10-31 05:33Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.56$1.0k
10-30 20:10Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.58$2.9k
10-29 02:35Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.5410048627$1.5k
10-29 02:35Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.55$550.00
10-28 15:58Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?BUY0.36$128.80
10-28 15:55Will SanDisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.75$75.75
10-27 12:50Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.57$81.51
10-23 03:54Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? BUY0.92$354.15
10-22 01:37Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?BUY0.025$8.16
10-18 23:13S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?SELL0.4941142569$117.46
10-18 16:00S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?BUY0.29$31.90
10-16 13:22Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? BUY0.92$48.26
10-16 13:22Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? BUY0.91$26.03
10-07 22:46Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.63$8.9k