PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x64B2Df86320431478146E55fbBD10C012502a9f8-1776646852678

0x64b2df86320431478146e55fbbd10c012502a9f8

Realised P&L
$-8.1k
Volume
$160.2k
Markets traded
14
Open portfolio
$199.94

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded14
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample1 position
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · No0.5700.460$92.00$22.00
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? · Yes0.1400.150$77.94+$5.20
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? · Yes0.0740.021$15.42$37.66
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.3270.060$14.58$64.89
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? · Yes0.0390.000$0.00$93.60
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes0.2160.000$0.00$3.7k
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00$10.00
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? · Yes0.0250.000$0.00$287.87
Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$19.89
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? · Yes0.0150.000$0.00$17.00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes0.0650.000$0.00$6.8k
Will France strike Iran by April 30? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00$25.00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.0810.000$0.00$171.48

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 15:18Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?BUY0.14$72.74
09-17 00:49Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?BUY0.0893589744$6.97
09-16 11:42Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?BUY0.57$114.00
09-16 10:43Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference?BUY0.09$19.89
09-16 10:35Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?BUY0.46$46.00
09-16 10:34Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?BUY0.4076923077$26.50
09-16 10:33Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?BUY0.074$53.08
07-27 00:31Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?SELL0.065$307.58
07-23 15:42Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0813112907$556.25
04-22 13:20Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY0.067$147.40
04-22 09:47Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY0.069979$699.79
04-22 05:37US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?BUY0.0168427778$30.32
04-22 04:54Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY0.059$200.60
04-22 03:43Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY0.061$51.85
04-22 03:04Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY0.0598326$11.97