Alderamin
0x64605f10f0bd8d7b465c226eccfa5425b4ab76db
- Realised P&L
- $-530.62
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $122.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.257 | 0.045 | $105.32 | −$496.68 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.218 | 0.221 | $10.09 | +$0.09 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · No | 0.820 | 0.815 | $4.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.065 | $2.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET · Up | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET · Up | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| McDonald's CEO out by June 30? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.10at 0.420Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
- +$25.48at 0.421Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
- +$25.35at 0.384Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
- +$16.12at 0.436Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
- +$15.73at 0.389Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 16:23 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2547032993 | $587.00 |
| 05-19 19:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET | BUY | 0.4899999973 | $9.00 |
| 05-19 19:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 05-19 19:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | SELL | 0.87 | $7.50 |
| 05-19 19:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 04-21 20:12 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999922 | $15.00 |
| 04-21 20:12 | Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | SELL | 0.57 | $15.00 |
| 04-21 20:11 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999907 | $9.34 |
| 04-21 20:10 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.91 | $9.28 |
| 04-01 18:51 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.06 |
| 04-01 18:38 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999333 | $2.08 |
| 03-16 00:40 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | BUY | 0.5499999807 | $10.00 |
| 03-13 12:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | BUY | 0.409999991 | $9.71 |
| 03-10 06:31 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.299999982 | $10.00 |
| 03-07 19:00 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.3699999771 | $10.00 |