PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

SovereignDoubt

0x6214ac149284a29d5fbb6a960a696cec550c990a

Realised P&L
$8.74
Volume
$531.82
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$100.83

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
Not knownProfit concentration
No settled positions sampled.
Not knownSettled sample0 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
ClearOpen concentration37.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1311.000$38.17+$33.17
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? · No0.2850.744$13.05+$8.05
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0860.182$10.61+$5.61
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.4000.595$7.44+$2.44
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.1000.125$6.25+$1.25
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? · Yes0.3700.405$5.47+$0.47
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2180.221$5.04+$0.04
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1660.077$4.64$5.36
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes0.4200.305$3.63$1.37
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1800.055$3.06$6.94
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.1860.162$1.74$0.26
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? · Yes0.1600.036$1.14$3.86
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0680.008$0.59$4.41
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00$5.00
Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw? · Yes0.2800.000$0.00$2.00

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-07 15:15Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?BUY0.2299999692$5.00
07-03 14:51Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?BUY0.269999937$3.00
07-03 14:51Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?BUY0.2799999048$2.00
07-03 14:49Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.3329999337$5.00
07-03 14:48Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1309999804$5.00
03-03 13:08Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.1$5.00
03-03 13:08Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.067999988$5.00
03-03 13:07Trump out as President before 2027?BUY0.179999987$10.00
03-03 13:05Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.0859999856$5.00
03-03 13:01Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?BUY0.2849999698$5.00
03-03 13:00Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?BUY0.16$5.00
03-03 12:51Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.1859999273$2.00
03-03 12:46Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?BUY0.3699999674$5.00
03-03 12:382026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseBUY0.4199999832$5.00
03-03 12:382026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY0.4$5.00