Marcelix
0x5f537c4759acd360a978074f563631d2f1c3f9fa
- Realised P&L
- $39.18
- Volume
- $116.2k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.298 | 0.543 | $1.3k | +$576.64 |
| Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? · Yes | 0.276 | 0.051 | $73.32 | −$326.68 |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? · Yes | 0.351 | 0.026 | $6.79 | −$83.21 |
| Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$169.92 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.201 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$141.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$678.00at 0.247Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$297.75at 0.256Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?
- +$183.76at 0.357Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$168.11at 0.377Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?
- +$165.68at 0.110Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 21:46 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.015 | $17.24 |
| 07-03 19:07 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.128 | $84.77 |
| 07-02 12:38 | Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3499999986 | $100.00 |
| 07-02 12:37 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3899999959 | $50.00 |
| 07-01 12:56 | Will Brazil be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? | SELL | 0.2881201786 | $99.35 |
| 07-01 12:55 | Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.3703739785 | $100.00 |
| 07-01 12:51 | Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway? | BUY | 0.1073555317 | $19.99 |
| 07-01 12:50 | Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3499999975 | $50.00 |
| 07-01 12:49 | Brazil vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? | BUY | 0.4299999985 | $100.00 |
| 06-30 23:11 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3279999986 | $100.00 |
| 06-30 20:39 | Will Brazil be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.2899999981 | $100.00 |
| 06-30 20:37 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2409518083 | $100.00 |
| 06-29 18:35 | Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? | BUY | 0.5299999977 | $69.92 |
| 06-29 18:26 | Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? | BUY | 0.449999998 | $100.00 |
| 06-29 13:14 | Neymar Jr: 1+ goals | BUY | 0.1399999948 | $20.00 |