990binpuhvel7586
0x5eb183e23d2139eefcaa9b0a7b3daddef0c8e27b
- Realised P&L
- $4.68
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $235.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MN-07 House seat? · No | 0.950 | 0.975 | $51.78 | +$1.33 |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? · No | 0.950 | 0.956 | $49.70 | +$0.31 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.920 | $49.37 | −$1.07 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? · No | 0.951 | 0.929 | $49.04 | −$1.16 |
| Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.506 | $27.32 | −$23.44 |
| Will Trump deport 700-800k people? · No | 0.995 | 0.985 | $5.71 | −$0.06 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? · No | 0.984 | 0.970 | $2.91 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.70at 0.982Will Valve remove Nuke from the Map Pool?
- +$0.91at 0.960Will the Democratic Party win the MS-01 House seat?
- +$0.81at 0.964Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
- +$0.46at 0.976Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?
- +$0.20at 0.985Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-16 08:47 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.94 |