0x5e3a9f5639aa5ff0279d7159bbc7621b6fc45a25
0x5e3a9f5639aa5ff0279d7159bbc7621b6fc45a25
- Realised P&L
- $-2.31
- Volume
- $305.33
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $4.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.815 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.949 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.365 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.685 | $0.90 | −$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.63at 0.268Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$2.88at 0.410Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?
- +$2.50at 0.450S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 12:12 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 12:10 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:36 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 16:09 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:09 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 19:15 | Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 22:37 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 02:25 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.744999933 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 15:23 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 07:04 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 23:03 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4299999807 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 14:13 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 14:45 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 03:48 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 08:35 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |