Icanwinthisgame
0x5de72afd53f4860470ee0f4a11bf0eabddb1540c
- Realised P&L
- $-3.5k
- Volume
- $301.4k
- Markets traded
- 608
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded608
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$507.52at 0.234Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
- +$420.02at 0.702Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
- +$329.90at 0.266Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
- +$295.41at 0.995Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
- +$251.80at 0.124Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 16:40 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 08-02 16:39 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 08-02 13:53 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.442 | $17.68 |
| 08-02 13:17 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.43 | $43.00 |
| 08-02 13:15 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 12:40 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $104.00 |
| 08-02 11:43 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.11 | $11.00 |
| 08-02 07:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $59.00 |
| 07-28 13:10 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | SELL | 0.0215186568 | $12.62 |
| 07-28 13:03 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | SELL | 0.045 | $4.48 |
| 07-28 12:18 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.59 | $5.90 |
| 07-28 11:50 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of July 27 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $1.80 |
| 07-28 11:38 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL | 0.988 | $98.80 |
| 07-26 21:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.007 | $1.40 |
| 07-26 13:24 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $16.00 |