0x5dDde3B22F24AE9bf2de418882437F84D1990014-1765425723126
0x5ddde3b22f24ae9bf2de418882437f84d1990014
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $515.0k
- Markets traded
- 262
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded262
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$680.84at 0.871Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?
- +$185.55at 0.979Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
- +$166.10at 0.965Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$101.51at 0.976Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?
- +$88.42at 0.916Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 05:03 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 07-30 15:21 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.08 |
| 07-24 04:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $52.00 |
| 07-21 13:38 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.56 | $56.00 |
| 07-12 02:02 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $64.00 |
| 07-05 23:34 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.769 | $23.07 |
| 07-05 03:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $75.00 |
| 07-03 06:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $415.00 |
| 07-03 01:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $664.00 |
| 07-02 12:52 | Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? | SELL | 0.999 | $507.98 |
| 07-02 08:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $82.00 |
| 07-02 02:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.037 | $1.11 |
| 07-01 01:08 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $44.00 |
| 06-30 00:06 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $398.20 |
| 06-29 11:08 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $710.22 |