0x5d0b5a35f7f2c7f8ac8c33e7812b896c0d966f99
0x5d0b5a35f7f2c7f8ac8c33e7812b896c0d966f99
- Realised P&L
- $-0.39
- Volume
- $209.88
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $4.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.955 | $1.31 | +$0.31 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.310 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.635 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.755 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.310Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
- +$2.20at 0.319Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?
- +$2.00at 0.500US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 15:27 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:10 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:03 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 23:00 | Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 13:12 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 04:06 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 20:06 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:11 | Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 12:10 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 04:10 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 08:10 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 21:05 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.48 |
| 09-18 12:20 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 03:06 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 23:37 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |