0x5c3166f154d1f10249256d9ca6894c3a951a657d
0x5c3166f154d1f10249256d9ca6894c3a951a657d
- Realised P&L
- $33.03
- Volume
- $36.9k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.345 | $730.18 | −$10.58 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.938 | 0.949 | $312.02 | +$3.62 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.038 | $62.32 | +$21.32 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.154 | $46.98 | +$8.36 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.124 | $23.69 | +$9.80 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.404 | 0.381 | $22.85 | −$1.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$49.81at 0.172Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$-0.86at 0.924Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$-2.82at 0.088Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$-23.57at 0.919Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$-77.14at 0.400Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 05:36 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.831 | $173.82 |
| 10-13 14:33 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.024 | $13.42 |
| 09-21 08:57 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.35 | $740.76 |
| 09-19 20:55 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.921 | $133.51 |
| 09-14 18:08 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.126 | $66.33 |
| 09-14 17:49 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.127 | $132.09 |
| 09-14 05:54 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.125 | $44.32 |
| 09-14 04:26 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.127 | $282.59 |
| 08-30 01:58 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.073 | $177.05 |
| 08-28 09:10 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.481 | $395.86 |
| 07-05 15:00 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.404 | $568.69 |
| 07-04 10:55 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.202 | $437.68 |
| 06-24 12:23 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.764 | $177.37 |
| 06-18 06:45 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.167 | $361.84 |
| 04-28 06:45 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.025 | $54.98 |