gjfjh
0x5adbb8579cc5d322ab47c962315dbb80dabb4c7a
- Realised P&L
- $-498.97
- Volume
- $55.4k
- Markets traded
- 267
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded267
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.997 | $709.85 | +$26.37 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.977 | 0.972 | $218.59 | −$1.19 |
| Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by October 31? · No | 0.920 | 0.995 | $45.94 | +$3.44 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.701 | 0.845 | $42.85 | +$7.31 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.965 | $19.15 | +$1.88 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No | 0.825 | 0.978 | $12.60 | +$1.97 |
| Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? · No | 0.957 | 0.980 | $4.93 | +$0.11 |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.165 | $0.49 | −$1.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$179.95at 0.203US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$107.87at 0.084US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
- +$58.28at 0.870Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$56.11at 0.138US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$50.03at 0.820Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 04:58 | Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.989 | $29.67 |
| 10-13 17:14 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.976875 | $195.38 |
| 10-13 17:13 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $24.40 |
| 09-30 14:03 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $428.64 |
| 09-30 14:03 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $11.49 |
| 09-23 17:30 | Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by October 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $42.49 |
| 09-23 17:29 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | SELL | 0.999 | $247.25 |
| 08-01 14:57 | Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.581 | $1.05 |
| 07-26 05:00 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $41.85 |
| 06-20 08:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.09 | $4.42 |
| 05-27 04:55 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.88 | $17.82 |
| 05-10 11:58 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.10 |
| 05-10 11:40 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.92 | $6.82 |
| 05-01 03:12 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | SELL | 0.38 | $37.62 |
| 04-27 08:17 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $0.56 |