Mekanor
0x5a8b7925fdbe2682df0a2251e1f5bc2db127a53e
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $37.1k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $118.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration50.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.720 | $97.30 | +$47.30 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.503 | 0.423 | $21.05 | −$3.95 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? · No | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.307 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$234.57at 0.810Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on September 17?
- +$108.02at 0.028Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde?
- +$104.50at 0.164Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?
- +$96.80at 0.608Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?
- +$92.86at 0.350U.S. fertility rate up in Q2 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 22:27 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.42 | $51.22 |
| 09-25 06:58 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.7594516383 | $67.45 |
| 09-22 19:07 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4099999984 | $50.00 |
| 09-19 00:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20? | SELL | 0.7303607504 | $20.25 |
| 09-18 20:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.5409999909 | $15.00 |
| 09-18 20:01 | Eagles vs. Titans | BUY | 0.7599999919 | $15.00 |
| 09-18 19:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 19? | SELL | 0.996 | $15.56 |
| 09-18 18:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3075726364 | $25.00 |
| 09-18 17:25 | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | BUY | 0.2699999988 | $50.00 |
| 09-18 17:25 | Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | BUY | 0.3699999976 | $50.00 |
| 09-18 16:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 19? | SELL | 0.983 | $20.07 |
| 09-18 05:05 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $10.00 |
| 09-18 04:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 19? | SELL | 0.29 | $6.16 |
| 09-17 22:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 19? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 22:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 19? | BUY | 0.64 | $10.00 |