0x5A4bEe0A465efD4cdbA65963760b3a7438cBF3b0-1767568244552
0x5a4bee0a465efd4cdba65963760b3a7438cbf3b0
- Realised P&L
- $41.89
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $96.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.81at 0.580Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
- +$14.23at 0.260Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$7.89at 0.380Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
- +$7.32at 0.268Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?
- +$6.43at 0.903Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 22:00 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.98 | $12.89 |
| 10-20 20:48 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.465 | $4.65 |
| 10-18 20:27 | Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 10-18 20:24 | Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 09-22 19:38 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.049 | $1.47 |
| 09-22 19:36 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.57 | $22.80 |
| 08-18 17:17 | Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $12.75 |
| 08-18 17:12 | Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | BUY | 0.51 | $5.10 |
| 07-10 12:11 | Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France? | SELL | 0.92 | $2.33 |
| 07-09 21:07 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.5940594048 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 16:07 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1459999765 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 16:07 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3289999863 | $10.00 |
| 07-06 07:40 | GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7214230056 | $9.00 |
| 07-06 07:39 | GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 19:01 | Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France? | BUY | 0.7899996998 | $2.00 |