Drunken-Mentat
0x588ce22fb2bf698e5a3f61447a44b3afe0ad1bf4
- Realised P&L
- $5.1k
- Volume
- $659.8k
- Markets traded
- 705
- Open portfolio
- $16.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded705
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$782.78at 0.279Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?
- +$733.00at 0.506US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$559.67at 0.507Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?
- +$525.31at 0.385Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
- +$473.80at 0.789Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 03:36 | EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31? | BUY | 0.79 | $31.60 |
| 09-21 16:50 | EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31? | BUY | 0.7769702093 | $60.00 |
| 09-20 22:22 | Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30? | BUY | 0.88 | $264.00 |
| 09-20 22:18 | Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30? | BUY | 0.843 | $168.60 |
| 09-20 22:17 | Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30? | BUY | 0.842 | $42.10 |
| 09-20 22:17 | Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30? | BUY | 0.8415 | $50.49 |
| 09-20 22:12 | EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31? | BUY | 0.766762554 | $45.00 |
| 09-15 17:08 | No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.52 | $79.04 |
| 09-15 07:04 | No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.542933987 | $399.80 |
| 08-20 05:27 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $35.04 |
| 08-01 07:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.85 | $425.00 |
| 08-01 07:10 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.48 | $48.00 |
| 07-15 23:01 | Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $34.80 |
| 07-15 23:01 | Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $60.90 |
| 07-13 13:22 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY | 0.71 | $355.00 |