13092026
0x583bd68541da94cf0d1d267d3ecf2b19ba1452e8
- Realised P&L
- $-146.89
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $13.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)5.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.125 | $12.13 | −$13.10 |
| Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.280 | $1.01 | +$0.07 |
| Tesla Roadster delivered by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.042 | $0.15 | −$0.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.16at 0.310Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in September?
- +$-0.80at 0.240Meta matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- +$-0.80at 0.120Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.12% in September?
- +$-0.80at 0.270Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.8M Iranian rials on September 30?
- +$-2.40at 0.190Will "Westside Whimsy - Jhené Aiko" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of September 26?