0x57f4d87754D4169f369d64a34A4E8FB405958195-1765237287086
0x57f4d87754d4169f369d64a34a4e8fb405958195
- Realised P&L
- $-31.61
- Volume
- $808.90
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $1.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.00at 0.250Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 9?
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- +$3.66at 0.359Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.56at 0.360Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
- +$2.40at 0.679Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 15:26 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 08:14 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 16:56 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.051 | $0.55 |
| 08-05 15:57 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.2069998733 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 15:54 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.1692306547 | $1.00 |
| 07-24 16:38 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999858 | $5.00 |
| 07-23 16:50 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.579999826 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 15:02 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 16:05 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499997975 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 16:03 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 22:15 | GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $4.00 |
| 07-05 16:38 | Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.5969994746 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 13:27 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 13:17 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 15:09 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |