0x57c9CB8B640F5054e8e1CD297f8267b51fb564e7-1772432615977
0x57c9cb8b640f5054e8e1cd297f8267b51fb564e7
- Realised P&L
- $2.32
- Volume
- $201.29
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $7.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.775 | $3.88 | +$0.07 |
| New pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.945 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.895 | 0.957 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.911 | 0.972 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$0.01 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.20 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.58 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.87at 0.452Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
- +$2.02at 0.579Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
- +$1.86at 0.627Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$1.84at 0.521Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
- +$1.79at 0.620Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 14:21 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 05-03 08:45 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.20 |
| 05-03 08:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 05-03 07:47 | Will Trump visit China by June 30? | SELL | 0.043 | $0.26 |
| 04-29 05:21 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 04-23 12:50 | Will Trump visit China by June 30? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.08 |
| 04-23 12:49 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.76 | $3.80 |
| 04-23 12:21 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.24 | $0.80 |
| 04-15 09:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 04-15 08:21 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | BUY | 0.6 | $0.97 |
| 04-13 06:13 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 04-13 05:23 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.9109999681 | $1.00 |
| 04-08 02:03 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 03-05 09:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | BUY | 0.559004746 | $0.97 |
| 03-05 09:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $0.98 |