0x576251dcfac0aae5478ec49305134550489e268d
0x576251dcfac0aae5478ec49305134550489e268d
- Realised P&L
- $4.01
- Volume
- $179.78
- Markets traded
- 61
- Open portfolio
- $2.11
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded61
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.365 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.420 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.245 | $0.40 | −$0.60 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.055 | $0.22 | −$1.27 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $502.50 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.94at 0.237S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on September 17?
- +$3.51at 0.227Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$3.43at 0.308S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on September 18?
- +$2.85at 0.349Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$2.31at 0.308Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 12:07 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:06 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 12:07 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 04:04 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 18:51 | Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:20 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 02:19 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 30? | BUY | 0.6799996464 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 05:51 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $502.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 21:27 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 11:45 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in September? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 03:12 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 19:06 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:18 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 10:18 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 02:17 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on September 25? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |