liobello
0x5659dfc6f1e9b322de341143c6a91da003615d66
- Realised P&L
- $-2.9k
- Volume
- $102.0k
- Markets traded
- 131
- Open portfolio
- $409.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded131
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.131 | $221.85 | +$133.45 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.221 | $110.25 | +$7.75 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.055 | $71.18 | −$148.82 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.054 | $5.94 | −$2.86 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.40 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.25 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.07 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.50 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.36 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? · Yes | 0.239 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.90 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$256.12at 0.870Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$240.42at 0.276Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
- +$197.87at 0.548Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$192.17at 0.384Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on May 30?
- +$161.93at 0.056Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 20:42 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.0242482413 | $206.09 |
| 04-23 09:20 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0235317615 | $200.00 |
| 04-23 09:20 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $207.06 |
| 04-12 03:57 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999997 | $440.00 |
| 04-12 03:56 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | SELL | 0.69 | $80.92 |
| 04-12 03:56 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.53 | $230.00 |
| 04-12 03:52 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | SELL | 0.4822514508 | $131.30 |
| 04-07 23:09 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | BUY | 0.7599999936 | $88.27 |
| 04-07 23:09 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | SELL | 0.2379476799 | $68.76 |
| 04-07 23:01 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.7345666048 | $200.00 |
| 04-07 23:01 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | SELL | 0.11 | $36.67 |
| 04-07 23:01 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | SELL | 0.17 | $39.10 |
| 04-07 23:01 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | SELL | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 04-07 23:00 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL | 0.02 | $5.00 |
| 04-07 22:59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.26 | $107.31 |