geowatch
0x56456dff3a59eec8acf29806ef899ee923585d21
- Realised P&L
- $4.7k
- Volume
- $199.7k
- Markets traded
- 276
- Open portfolio
- $19.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded276
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.883Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$473.80at 0.968Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
- +$411.36at 0.947Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
- +$406.46at 0.930Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$350.64at 0.888Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 18:13 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | BUY | 0.579999997 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 18:07 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.9098635201 | $2.0k |
| 10-14 15:59 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $1000.00 |
| 10-13 23:59 | Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.9273107984 | $100.00 |
| 10-13 23:49 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.6199999996 | $820.00 |
| 10-13 23:48 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.3599999997 | $100.00 |
| 10-13 11:30 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999999 | $1.5k |
| 10-13 11:28 | Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31? | BUY | 0.8431080968 | $500.00 |
| 10-13 11:27 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.6683235029 | $861.15 |
| 10-11 00:03 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | BUY | 0.9889999999 | $100.00 |
| 10-11 00:00 | Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? | BUY | 0.9756021881 | $1.3k |
| 10-10 23:20 | Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31? | BUY | 0.631983666 | $250.00 |
| 10-10 23:19 | Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31? | SELL | 0.8953685432 | $1.7k |
| 10-10 13:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.0k |
| 10-10 13:09 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? | BUY | 0.8308113915 | $500.00 |