PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Sign in

Traders

geowatch

0x56456dff3a59eec8acf29806ef899ee923585d21

Realised P&L
$5.4k
Volume
$166.1k
Markets traded
252
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded252
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? · No0.7500.620$248.00$52.00
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No0.7270.935$128.54+$28.54
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? · No0.8410.929$110.51+$10.51
SBF released from custody in 2026? · No0.8800.956$108.58+$8.58
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · No0.9000.955$106.11+$6.11
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? · Yes0.8900.930$104.49+$4.49
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.7010.938$104.39+$26.39
5kt meteor strike in 2026? · No0.7000.725$103.57+$3.57
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? · Yes0.6400.309$24.14$25.86
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · No0.6930.740$21.36+$1.36
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0550.086$15.55+$5.55
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? · Yes0.6300.335$10.63$9.37
New pandemic in 2026? · No0.8900.935$10.51+$0.51
Ebola pandemic in 2026? · No0.9300.967$10.40+$0.40
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · No0.9420.978$10.38+$0.38

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-24 01:26Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY0.9678218265$14.2k
07-21 23:41Nothing Ever Happens: JulyBUY0.852080805$1000.00
06-24 15:47Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24?BUY0.32$10.00
06-24 14:39Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?BUY0.9557057004$1000.00
06-11 20:48Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?BUY0.7399999995$90.00
06-11 20:48Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?BUY0.7$100.00
06-11 20:48Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?BUY0.8199999997$300.00
06-11 20:47Will France win on 2026-06-16?BUY0.6699999993$100.00
06-11 20:47Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?BUY0.6799999984$50.00
06-11 20:47Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?BUY0.6$100.00
06-11 20:46Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?BUY0.9099999999$500.00
06-11 20:46Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?BUY0.5099999986$50.00
06-11 20:46Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?BUY0.4$20.00
06-11 20:45Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to ScoreBUY0.6799999984$50.00
06-11 20:44Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?BUY0.9368578037$1000.00