geowatch
0x56456dff3a59eec8acf29806ef899ee923585d21
- Realised P&L
- $5.4k
- Volume
- $166.1k
- Markets traded
- 252
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded252
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.883Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$473.80at 0.968Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
- +$411.36at 0.947Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
- +$406.46at 0.930Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$350.64at 0.888Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 01:26 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.9678218265 | $14.2k |
| 07-21 23:41 | Nothing Ever Happens: July | BUY | 0.852080805 | $1000.00 |
| 06-24 15:47 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24? | BUY | 0.32 | $10.00 |
| 06-24 14:39 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? | BUY | 0.9557057004 | $1000.00 |
| 06-11 20:48 | Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.7399999995 | $90.00 |
| 06-11 20:48 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.7 | $100.00 |
| 06-11 20:48 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.8199999997 | $300.00 |
| 06-11 20:47 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.6699999993 | $100.00 |
| 06-11 20:47 | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.6799999984 | $50.00 |
| 06-11 20:47 | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.6 | $100.00 |
| 06-11 20:46 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.9099999999 | $500.00 |
| 06-11 20:46 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.5099999986 | $50.00 |
| 06-11 20:46 | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.4 | $20.00 |
| 06-11 20:45 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.6799999984 | $50.00 |
| 06-11 20:44 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.9368578037 | $1000.00 |