PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

depeer

0x5567486d87d8fd69c875eb36208386128516aeed

Realised P&L
$12.2k
Volume
$1.89M
Markets traded
1,411
Open portfolio
$1.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,411
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration70.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · No0.9130.974$876.86+$54.19
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? · No0.6430.875$142.89+$37.88
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No0.7450.425$85.00$64.00
NATO article 5 before 2027? · No0.8100.947$56.37+$8.16
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? · No0.7671.000$28.32+$6.59
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.7700.110$22.00$132.06
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? · No0.9200.979$17.01+$1.02
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $2B? · No0.3170.935$6.35+$4.19
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No0.7600.935$4.67+$0.88
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? · No0.6401.000$3.58+$1.29
Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026? · No0.6301.000$1.99+$0.74
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · No0.9001.000$1.49+$0.15
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? · Yes0.8250.195$1.45$4.69
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? · Yes0.1800.027$1.22$6.92
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No0.1900.590$0.73+$0.49

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
02-09 01:15Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?BUY0.971$117.94
02-01 00:01US government shutdown Saturday?BUY0.996$112.67
02-01 00:01Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9$270.00
11-29 09:24Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year?BUY0.9628993657$248.97
11-29 09:18Will Ethena dip to $0.20 in November?SELL0.008$0.18
11-29 09:09Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds in 2025?SELL0.09$8.58
11-29 09:08Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords in 2025?SELL0.06$11.53
11-29 09:08Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% in 2025?SELL0.11$11.79
11-29 09:08Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? SELL0.078022608$14.43
11-29 09:08Will None in 2025 occur?SELL0.1102641926$15.99
11-29 09:07Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?SELL0.0731683237$10.60
11-29 09:07Will Gainzy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?SELL0.08$10.64
11-29 09:07Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?SELL0.1759531773$17.89
11-29 09:06Will Sunderland be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?SELL0.070452$14.09
11-29 09:05Will BBB be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?SELL0.0536667889$16.10